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+--- Thread: New Madrid Fault (/showthread.php?tid=1305)
New Madrid Fault - mahzeltoffee - 03-21-2011
I recently talked with a relative in Waukegan about the quake in Japan and how we are due for a 9.0 subduction quake in the Pacific. They said they'd never heard of the New Madrid Fault which could clobber Chicago, St. Louis, etc. So, who has heard of the New Madrid Fault? BTW, our last quake of any size was the spring break quake about 10 years back. It was a 5 or 5.5 No tsunami worries here but the big quake is in the back of our minds and we are 57 miles from the ocean with a mountain range in the way. So, have you heard of the New Madrid Fault?
Re: New Madrid Fault - goodintentions - 03-23-2011
I've heard of the New Madrid Fault my whole life, but mostly because my family is from Southern Illinois.
A quick internet search brings up information like this about the New Madrid.
A MAJOR EARTHQUAKE in this AREA, 7.5 or greater, happens every 200- 300 years (the last one in 1812). There is a 25% chance by 2040. A New Madrid Fault rupture this size would be felt throughout half the United States and damage 20 states or more. Missouri alone could anticipate losses of at least $6 billion from such an event.
THE GREAT NEW MADRID EARTHQUAKE OF 1811-1812 was actually a series of over 2000 shocks in five months, five of which were 8.0 or more in magnitude. Eighteen of these rang church bells on the Eastern seaboard. The very land itself was destroyed in the Missouri Bootheel, making it unfit even for farmers for many years. It was the largest burst of seismic energy east of the Rocky Mountains in the history of the United States and was several times larger than the San Francisco quake of 1906.
WHEN WILL ANOTHER EARTHQUAKE HAPPEN THE SIZE OF THOSE IN 1811-1812? Several lines of research suggest that the catastrophic upheavals like those in 1811-12 visit the New Madrid region every 500-600 years. Hence, emergency planners, engineers, and seismologists do not expect a repeat of the intensity of the 1811-12 series for at least 100 years or more. However, even though the chance is remote, experts assign a 3% probability of a major earthquake by the year 2040. Earthquake probabilities for known active faults always increase with time, because stresses within the earth slowly and inexorably mount, year by year, until the rocks can take no more, and sudden rupture becomes inevitable.